Speculation Mounts Around Putin–Lavrov Rift as Lavrov Skips Key Meetings; Kremlin Strikes Back
Speculation Mounts Around Putin–Lavrov Rift as Lavrov Skips Key Meetings; Kremlin Strikes Back
In recent days, the absence of Russia’s long-time Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov from several high-profile engagements has sparked widespread speculation of a falling-out with President Vladimir Putin. While the Kremlin has dismissed such claims, insiders and analysts suggest that reduced influence and shifting internal power dynamics may be behind Lavrov’s increasingly constrained role.
What’s Fueling the Speculation?
Lavrov, who has served as Foreign Minister for over two decades, was not invited to a major Kremlin National Security Council meeting on November 5. His absence was conspicuous, especially given his usual participation in such top-level discussions. Compounding the rumors, Putin has replaced Lavrov with a deputy official for Russia’s delegation to the upcoming G20 summit, a role Lavrov has traditionally held for years.
This sidelining comes amid speculation that Lavrov mishandled a recent phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to unnamed sources, this call contributed to the cancellation of a planned summit between Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Budapest, generating internal criticism and questions over Lavrov’s diplomatic effectiveness.
Kremlin’s Denial: All Quiet on the Diplomatic Front
Despite the swirling rumors, the Kremlin has offered a firm rebuttal. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the reports of a rift “absolutely false,” affirming that Lavrov continues in his role without change. According to Peskov, Lavrov is fully functional and continues to execute his duties as Foreign Minister.
Moscow has also emphasized that Lavrov’s omission from some events is not unusual and does not signal any loss of presidential favor. The Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, has been unusually tight-lipped about Lavrov’s schedule, fueling further speculation.
Why the Sudden Shift in Lavrov’s Role?
Failed U.S. Summit
Reports point to Lavrov’s handling of the aborted Putin–Trump summit as a flashpoint. Allegedly, his tense conversation with Rubio prompted Washington to call off the summit, leading to internal finger-pointing within the Kremlin.
Generational Transition
At age 75, Lavrov is widely regarded as part of an older generation of Kremlin loyalists. Some analysts argue that his reduced visibility could reflect a strategic move to gradually transition younger, more loyal technocrats into Russia’s diplomatic leadership.
Power Rebalancing
Names like Maxim Oreshkin, deputy chief of staff, are emerging more frequently in foreign policy briefings—a sign, according to some, of a subtle rebalancing of influence in the corridors of power.
The Foreign Policy Impact
Lavrov’s absence could reshape Russia’s external posture. As the voice of Moscow on Ukraine, the West, and nuclear policy, his sidelining—if permanent—might signal a shift in how Putin wants foreign policy run in the next phase.
Observers warn that this could affect Russia’s ability to conduct consistent diplomacy, particularly as it weighs renewed talks with Western powers or navigation of complex geopolitical alignments.
What Comes Next?
- Monitoring Role Changes: The diplomatic community will be watching closely to see whether Lavrov’s absence from major functions continues—and if new names emerge in his place.
- Internal Power Struggles: Any realignment may intensify power struggles inside the Kremlin, especially as younger figures jostle for influence.
- Foreign Policy Shift: Whether Lavrov’s marginalization leads to a genuine change in strategic direction remains to be seen; it may affect Russia’s negotiation tactics on Ukraine, nuclear issues, and international summits.
- Public Messaging: The Kremlin’s future statements on Lavrov’s role will be telling; will they continue to publicly reaffirm his authority, or gradually reduce his visibility without outright dismissal?
