Lucknow: The outcome of the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram on December 11 will determine the contours of political alliances for 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh as well.
While Congress remains the dominant pole against the BJP in other Hindi Heartland states, in UP and Bihar, it is the regional satraps who continue to hold the sway. Interestingly, from BSP to SP, all these parties are sitting on traditional Congress vote in their respective states.
Just like Congress did not accommodate SP and BSP in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, will Akhilesh and Mayawati pay the grand old party back in the same coin when it comes to stitching alliances for LS polls?
It is clear that both SP and BSP do not want to commit anything before the votes for the five assembly elections are counted. The top leadership of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party made this apparent by failing to show up at the two-day long farmers’ protest in New Delhi attended by other non-BJP leaders.
“First Congress tried to spread rumour that BSP was demanding 50 seats in Madhya Pradesh. This was totally wrong. They fought last assembly elections in coalition with Samajwadi Party and the results are in front of everyone. Even if on December 11 Congress gains upper hand in a few states, then too there will not be any kind of pressure on BSP to include Congress in any kind of alliance for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections,” says BSP leader Anubhav Chak.
Meanwhile, Samajwadi Party, which is just depending on the ‘Gathbandhan’ with the BSP in the state, will also have to form a fresh strategy.
The SP, which was once the biggest political party in the state, today lacks a strong organisational structure. This can be well understood by the fact that even after almost a year of dissolving its various affiliates like Yuvjan Sabha, Alpsankhyak Sabha, Lohia Vahini and Mulayam Singh Youth Brigade, not even one unit of these organisations have been structured.
Most importantly, the man who was responsible for strengthening the structure of the party once, Shivpal Yadav, has now formed his own political outfit.
“I think results in state assembly elections are important, but what’s more important is the defeat of NDA in 2019. Opposition parties are more concerned about 2019 elections. Samajwadi Party is striving hard to weave a stronger alliance. We want all like-minded people to come together to defeat BJP-led government at the Centre,” says SP spokesperson Abdul Hafiz Gandhi.
Another emerging and important political outfit will be the political party by Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias ‘Raja Bhaiyya’.
The stand taken by him against the SC/ST Act and caste-based reservation has made it clear that instead of taking on ruling BJP, he will be attempting to garner the upper cast votes which might be spilled due to anger in upper caste against SC/ST Act.
Political analyst and senior journalist Sharat Pradhan feels “parties like BSP and SP would want to include Congress in the ‘Gathbandhan’ if the results in any two Hindi speaking states go in favour of Congress”.
“If Congress wins in any two states, it will give out a revival signal which will attract a lot of voters angry with other parties and do not find any suitable candidate for their vote. This will also include Muslim vote which may be a cause of worry for the Samajwadi Party,” he says.
No matter what BSP is currently saying about alliance with Congress in Uttar Pradesh, things will definitely be affected by the results on December 11.